AHEAD of the scheduled meeting between officials of the Federal Government and the Boko Haram sect in Chad Republic tomorrow, many experts have expressed doubts on the fruitfulness of such negotiations with the sect, saying Boko Haram has become a franchise for all sort of criminals, citing disharmony, lack of organisation and clear-cut leadership on the part of the deadly sect.
One of the experts, Richard Downie, deputy director and fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Africa Programme, who was engaged by the WorldPost, a media partnership of Huffington Post and Berggruen Institute of Governance, said the ubiquitous nature of Boko Haram and lack of clear-cut leadership structure in the sect would render the peace talks meaningless.
According to Downie, “Boko Haram harbours many factions, and it is unclear who represents the group.”
He explained further that it was even improper to call Abubakar Shekau its leader.
Downie, in the interview with WorldPost, declared that the sect had three factions.
“Boko Haram has become an umbrella brand or franchise that covers all kinds of activities. It’s pretty hard to see who speaks for the group. There are, at least, three different strands under the Boko Haram umbrella with varying motivations.
“First, there are the guerrillas who are motivated by political grievances. The origins of Boko Haram grew out of political grievances against the Federal Government and the established elite of the North. There are a lot of well-founded arguments that local politicians bankrolled the group at the outset and then lost control of the monster.
“Second, there are those who follow a puritanical form of Islam, which is increasingly taking extremely violent forms.
“The third group, we know the least about -- the out and out criminals who are using the broad name of Boko Haram. It is amazing that after 12 years of a Boko Haram insurgency, we know so little about who they are and their motivations,” he explained.
While some experts believed the government’s attempt at peace was in order, Downie urged the Nigerian government to be careful in the negotiation process and factor in all the dangerous attributes of the deadly sect.
Commenting on the renewed hostility after the declaration of ceasefire, which he described as worrying, Downie admitted that Boko Haram’s brutal activities had been significantly halted by the Joint Military Task Force prosecuting war against the sect.
“A few weeks ago, it looked like Boko Haram might capture Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, but since then, it seems that threat has been averted and the military has pushed the group back to an extent. But it is difficult to tell if Boko Haram is entering a phase of retreat,” he stated.
The Nigerian military had on Friday, 16 October, announced a ceasefire deal with the sect with a declaration that the abducted girls of Federal Government Girls College, Chibok would be released by the sect following Monday. However, less than 24 hours after the said ceasefire deal was brokered, the sect launched deadly attacks on Borno, killing scores.
